A Running Commentary

I have to admit I derive substantial amusement from the Democrats. Being mostly Libertarian or a so-called “Classical Liberal”, I don’t swear absolute fealty to the GOP. But I have chuckle at their opposition. 2008 presents Democrats with the perfect field of battle: an unpopular President and heavily negative public sentiment toward Republicans. The majority of congressional seats up reelection are currently held by Republicans and in districts trending Democrat. Many Republicans in those districts are, perhaps understandably, retiring rather than running.

Given this dream scenario, what are the Dems doing? They’re dining on their own young. The two biggest questions which McCain could not have raised, gender and race, have been nice inflamed by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton themselves in recent months. Not only are the candidates giving the Republicans all the material that could need, but they’re also driving each other ever more left in order to capture their base. War or no war, the USA has never been a ‘left and more left’ constituency.

Regardless of who wins the nomination, the greatest loss for the Democrats is and will be time. Valuable, irreplaceable time. As is oft repeated, the most important element of a national political campaign is to the ability to define your opponent before they can define themselves. Defining one’s opponent in many some cases is even more important than defining oneself.

March 18, 2004

Consider this date: March 18, 2004. That is the day the Republicans first ran their national ad campaign depicting John Kerry as the flip-flopper who ‘voted for it before he voted against it’, a definition that proved lethal. Now consider that is already mid-April and the Democrats appear ready to keep attacking one another for another 2 months. Meanwhile, John McCain is busy burnishing his image as an elder statesman.

The Republican’s consistent ability to win the identity battle over the last 40 years has delivered them the White House in 7 out of the last 10 Presidential elections. Whether it was Richard Nixon casting George McGovern as the candidate of “acid, amnesty, and abortion” (see previous discussion here), Reagan’s daybreak in America compared to Carter’s accepted malaise, or the famous Willie Horton ad Bush Sr. used to hammer Michael Dukais, Republicans frequently get the upper hand. And where the Republicans have frequently had big wins (1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988) the few Democrat victories have been narrow.

Tellingly the Republicans have lost the define-your-opponent battle only three times since 1964, each resulting in a loss: Jimmy Carter won narrowly in 1976 by riding Gerald Ford’s image as the insider who pardoned Nixon. Bill Clinton, abetted by the Ross Perot-muddied waters in 1992, eked out an electoral win with only 43% of the vote by successfully painting Bush as tone-deaf and out of touch. Bob Dole actually WAS deaf-toned and out of touch in 1996, giving the Democrats their one convincing win in almost half a century. Every day that passes with Democrats focused on each other rather than their opponent is a day lost in winning the definition battle.

All About The Benjamin$

Another major benefit for McCain and the Republicans is the free media time, or rather the time when they don’t have to spend money, the continued Democratic battle provides. Fundraising, usually a Republican stronghold has been for outpaced by Democrats this year. The Obama rock star machine, currently outspending Hillary in Pennsylvania to the tune of 5 to 1, has raised unprecedented monies. With Oprah in tow it’s hard to see any end to that on the horizon.

In contrast, the mostly moderate John McCain is an anathema to many on the right. This trend is compounded by the sense of inevitably initially seen on the Democratic side (no one likes to spend money on a losing cause). Yet with Democrats focused on each other, the McCain campaign is quietly transforming itself from a scrappy primary organization into a national machine. Every week that goes by where McCain doesn’t have to fully engage with costly media buys, the more potent his war chest becomes.

Man Behind The Curtain

Of course the numbers overwhelmingly indicate an Obama nomination. Barring a primary miracle whereby Clinton takes close to 80% of the vote in each and every remaining primary, Barack will have a substantive delegate lead going into the convention. Any attempt by the superdelegates at that point to give the nomination to Clinton seems highly unlikely, even for Democrats.

However, the most menacing danger for Democrats is not a Clinton nomination. It is that the strength of the Clinton campaign, through both primary results and political clout, will exert enormous pressure for a joint ticket. Bill Clinton remains a potent force in his party and would appear perhaps even less willing to throw in towel than his wife. He is close to having real power again and he can almost taste it.

Hillary wouldn’t be thrilled with her place at the bottom of the ticket but the Republicans certainly would be. The deep-seated distaste held by Republicans, especially Conservatives, for Hillary is well established. Though Obama would be far more liberal, as the Clinton governance by polls holds them more to the middle, her inclusion on the ticket would fuel Republican fundraising efforts like nothing else could. She would also drive turnout from the conservative base, a constituency that is less than enthused by McCain.

Meanwhile, the Democrat’s soap opera waxes on…