A Running Commentary

Ever since the first ‘Super Tuesday” back in February, political analysts have noted the steep uphill climb Hillary Clinton has for her party’s nomination. The talking heads repeatedly claim that, given the democrat’s proportional primary structure, even substantial wins by Clinton make it impossible for her to win the nomination. Newsweek’s Jonathan Alter has been one of the more vocal, laying out the math in his latest article Hillary’s Math Problem and proclaiming, “She could win 16 straight and still lose.”

The problem with this thinking is that it fails to account for the secondary changes in situation and mood that would accompany a Clinton win streak. Sure, as Alter’s piece projects, it is all but impossible for Clinton to win the nomination outright with the remaining primaries. But if Hillary turns her campaign around tonight with a strong showing, it becomes just as difficult for Barack Obama. Should events go Clinton’s way for the remaining primaries, Mr. Alter’s math would have the delegate count at Obama 1634, Clinton 1576. Since it takes 2,025 total delegates to win the nomination, neither candidate would get it outright!

Heading into a meaningful convention it is easier to envision a Clinton nomination, particularly if she leads the popular vote among democrats. Here’s how it could play out: Hillary wins OH, TX, PA, RI, etc. Now she has the momentum. She can say “Look, Obama has been out spending me in all of these primaries, as much as 12 to 1 or more in some areas, and I still beat him. It’s fair to say that there are serious concerns within our party about his experience.”

At that point the Dems have to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations, which went for Hillary, or conduct expensive do-overs to replace primaries held too early in violation of DNC rules. As long as Hillary wins Florida and is close in Michigan, Democrats would head into their convention without a clear nominee. The Clinton train would have enormous momentum. If the issue of Obama’s inexperience continues to gain traction, it could in fact lead to heavy pressure on him to co-bill with Clinton as the Vice President. He is extremely young. Doing something for ‘the good of the party’ and retaining status as the presumptive nominee the next time is not all that bad if the alternative is a losing protracted fight.

Still sound unlikely? Consider this from the perspective of Democrats desperate to take the White House: Hillary would have won primaries in crucial general election swing states including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Florida. Those states mean more than many of Obama’s wins such as Iowa, South Carolina, and Texas (which Republicans could win) and Illinois, Nevada, and D.C. (which will likely go Democrat anyway). All of the sudden “electability” is on Clinton’s side.

The inexperience tag is only beginning to undermine Obama. Try as they might, his campaign is not going to get that issue to boomerang on Hillary even though First Lady is hardly a Presidential resume builder. Why? Because unspoken but inherent is the notion that should Hillary have trouble with that 3 a.m. phone call, Bill will be right there to help. Perhaps next to her, perhaps on the couch, but available nonetheless. Of course, for any of this to happen, the Clintons do have to start winning some primaries.